To me the telltale is that everything was working for you until it suddenly didn't. Since nothing changed at BYOND's end, that only leaves your code, your host, or some detail about the connection from host to hub (possibly related to timing while the world starts up and the hub first makes contact) as possibilities.
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At the end of the day I couldn't figure this out, all NFO wanted to do was shift blame so I moved to another server. Thanks for the help anyway.
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The question is, did the new provider solve the issue? If so, then you know for sure it was indeed NFO.
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Yes I'm now hosting on the google cloud console and have had no issues as of yet.
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I had this same issue a while back (also using NFO). Not sure how but it resolved itself after a long time of me thinking it was BYOND since I'd never had problems with NFO before that point (or since).
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The trace making it to the hub is a good sign, but not a surefire sign of proper communication, just that the one simple request managed to reach the hub. There could be a slew of other things happening causing packets to be dropped, if you run a ping on "dirac.byond.com" (or the IP it resolves to) over the span of say, 10 minutes, do you get dropped packets?
If not, then it's due to the complexity of the communication, which is a whole 'nother can of worms that can lead down any number of "complex network nonsense" paths, none of which I'm qualified to walk down, unfortunately.
But the primary thing you need to figure out is exactly where and how things are failing.